In an article that appeared in “The Peoples Tribune”sign a new 2025 public opinion survey presented at University of St. Martin finds that 40.1 percent of respondents in the European Netherlands believe the Caribbean islands should become completely independent, 20.1 percent are opposed, and 38.5 percent say they do not know or have no opinion. The findings were presented during a public lecture at USM by political scientist Wouter Veenendaal and provide fresh insight into how Dutch voters view the future of the Kingdom and its Caribbean partners. The People’s Tribune
The research, carried out through the LISS panel of Tilburg University, used an extensive online questionnaire. Of 3,657 invited participants, 2,843 completed the survey, for a response rate of almost 78 percent. The study examines attitudes toward Aruba, Curaçao and St. Maarten, as well as the Caribbean Netherlands — Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius — and updates earlier polls by Maurice de Hond which, in 2008 and 2015, already showed strong Dutch support for ending the relationship with what was then called “the Antilles.” The People’s Tribune+1
In 2008, 49 percent favored ending that relationship, and in 2015, 61 percent said the Netherlands should completely sever ties if financial mismanagement and fraud continued. The People’s Tribune+1
In the new survey, respondents were asked to react to three core constitutional statements:
1. The political relationship between the European Netherlands and the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom should remain as it is.
2. The Caribbean countries (Aruba, Curaçao and St. Maarten) should become a province of the Netherlands.
3. The Caribbean islands should become completely independent.
Answers ranged from “fully agree” to “fully disagree,” with room for “no answer” or “do not know / no opinion.” The People’s Tribune
Findings on each option:
• Status quo: ~4.9% fully agreed and 27.7% agreed that the relationship should remain as it is total ~32.6% support. On the opposition side, 15.7% disagreed and 4.6% fully disagreed (~20.3% opposed). The single largest group — 45.8% — chose “do not know / no opinion.”
The People’s Tribune
• Provincial status: Only 3.3% fully agreed and 10.1% agreed (combined 13.4% in favor). By comparison, 32.7% disagreed and 13.3% fully disagreed (~46% actively rejected). Another 39.1% said they did not know or had no opinion. The People’s Tribune
• Full independence: 12.0% fully agreed and 28.1% agreed, giving the 40.1% support number. Only 16.3% disagreed and 3.8% fully disagreed (~20.1% opposed). Independence therefore attracts about twice as much active support as opposition among those who express a clear position though with a large share (38.5%) uncertain or unwilling to choose.
The People’s Tribune
The survey also connects these constitutional preferences to practical issues of finance, migration and representation: whether the Netherlands should continue providing financial support to the Caribbean islands; whether residents of the islands should retain the right to move freely to the Netherlands; whether Dutch citizens living in Aruba, Curaçao and St. Maarten should gain the right to vote for the Dutch parliament; and for the Caribbean Netherlands whether people in Bonaire, Saba and St. Eustatius should receive the same social benefits as citizens in the European Netherlands, whether the Netherlands has a moral obligation toward the islands, and whether Dutch education should devote more attention to Kingdom relations. The People’s Tribune+1
When results are broken down by party preference, the overall picture remains relatively consistent but some contrasts appear. Voters for some Dutch parties (for example, PVV and Forum voor Democratie) are more likely to oppose continued financial support and free migration from the Caribbean to the Netherlands. Meanwhile, supporters of parties such as GroenLinks–PvdA, D66, CDA, SP and ChristenUnie are more supportive of equal social services for the Caribbean Netherlands, while others (e.g. supporters of VVD, PVV, BBB and NSC) are more hesitant on that issue. The People’s Tribune
Taken together, the earlier polls and the new LISS-survey outline a longer trend in Dutch thinking about the Caribbean parts of the Kingdom. Earlier measurements highlighted a readiness to end the relationship when framed through financial mismanagement. The latest data from the USM lecture show a more nuanced reality: independence commands the largest visible block of support among the constitutional options tested, yet competes with preferences for the status quo and sits within a broader landscape of uncertainty. For St. Maarten and its neighbouring islands, that mix of support, resistance and hesitation in the European Netherlands will shape how future discussions about greater autonomy or full independence can unfold.
https://www.thepeoplestribunesxm.com/articles/new-dutch-survey-shows-strongest-support-for-full-islands-independence-but-high-uncertainty-remains